Price Appreciation Slowing Down -Case-Shiller

27 Jul

Reblogged from Mortgage Daily News – @JannSwanson

The newly named S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices noted a continued rise in prices across the country although some monthly indices declined. The National Index which covers all nine census divisions, rose 5.0 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from May 2015 to May 2016, the same annual increase as was posted in April. On a monthly basis the unadjusted index gained 1.2 percent in May and the seasonally adjusted version rose by 0.2 percent.

The 10-City Composite Index eased back from its 4.7 percent annual increase in April to 4.4 percent in May while it gained 0.8 percent for the month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The index declined by 0.2 percent after adjustment.

There was a similar report for the 20-City Composite. It rose by 5.2 percent year-over-year (compared to 5.4 percent in April) and was up 0.9 percent unadjusted and down 0.1 percent after adjustment.

The 20-City is used by Econoday to solicit analysts’ opinions. The actual numbers were disappointing by that measure, coming in below the most pessimistic estimates for both monthly and yearly values. The range of monthly predictions for the adjusted index was for an increase of 0.3 to 1.3 percent with a consensus of 0.4 percent. The forecast for the year-over-year number ranged from 5.3 to 6.3 percent, averaging 5.6 percent.

Portland, Seattle, and Denver have reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last four months. In May, Portland led the way with a 12.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 10.7%, and Denver with a 9.5% increase. Eight cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2016 versus the year ending April 2016. On a monthly basis 12 cities saw prices rise on a seasonally adjusted basis, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

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The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

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