Mortgage Time

10 Nov
Tax Plan in Focus
As expected, market moving news was scarce this week. It was a very light week for economic data. The primary source of volatility was Thursday’s release of additional details about the Senate tax plan, but this had just a minor net effect. Mortgage rates finished the week a little higher.
On Thursday, the Senate released more information about its plans for tax overhaul. Of note, the Senate plan would delay a corporate tax cut until 2019. The House and the Senate now will work to reconcile their differences to come up with a plan that both will support. Investors will be keeping a close eye on progress on this front. In general, tax reform is expected to be inflationary and negative for mortgage rates. As a result, news indicating that the package will be larger or will go into effect sooner will be viewed as worse for mortgage rates, and vice versa.

Friday’s report on Consumer Sentiment revealed that consumers remain very optimistic about current and future economic conditions. Last month, the index reached the highest level since 2004. While it dropped a little this month to 97.8, this was still the second highest reading of the year. In October 2016, prior to the election, the index was at a level of just 87.2.
With the stock market near record levels, the unemployment rate the lowest in decades, and hopes for tax cuts high, it makes sense that consumers are feeling good about the economy.
Looking ahead, Wednesday will be the big day with Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation report that looks at the price change for goods and services. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Thursday. Housing Starts will be released on Friday. In addition, investors will be watching for any changes in the tax reform plans.

>> View the newsletter online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/285/21342/0/3

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Congrats Jared and Trista!

9 Nov

Great customers make great mortgage loans go easy! Congrats Jared and Trista

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Another 5-star review from a happy Customer

31 Oct

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

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Mortgage Time

27 Oct
ECB Announces Taper
The most highly anticipated event of the week, the European Central Bank meeting, contained no surprises and caused little reaction. Reports about President Trump’s favored pick for the next U.S. Fed Chair caused some volatility during the week but had only a small net effect. The key GDP report also was not much of a market mover. In the end, mortgage rates finished the week slightly higher.
At Thursday’s meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced future plans for its bond purchase program which closely matched investor expectations. The ECB will extend its bond purchase program from its current end date in December by nine months to September and will reduce its monthly purchases from its current level of 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros beginning in January.
President Trump is expected to soon announce his nominee to serve the next term as Fed Chair. On Tuesday, it was reported that the two leading contenders out of the many people under consideration were Jerome Powell and John Taylor. The report that Taylor is one of the two finalists caused some concern for investors. Taylor is viewed as the candidate most in favor of a more rapid increase in the federal funds rate. The news caused mortgage rates to move higher. On Friday, however, another report named Powell as the top choice. Under Powell, it is expected that the Fed would maintain a course for monetary policy similar to the current one. Following the news, mortgage rates offset the increase from the report on Tuesday.

The first estimate for third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth released on Friday was 3.0%, well above the consensus forecast of 2.5%. However, an increase in inventories accounted for 0.7% of the growth. An increase in inventories is typically viewed similar to a one-time event and is discounted when evaluating the underlying strength of the economy.
Due to the large influence of inventory levels on the results, investors considered the GDP data to be close to the expected levels and showed little reaction.
Looking ahead, it will be a big week. Investors expect President Trump to announce his nominee for Fed Chair sometime next week. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. Investors do not expect any policy changes to be announced. There will be several major economic reports released as well, capped by Friday’s important monthly Employment data. In particular, the Core PCE price index will be released on Monday and the ISM national manufacturing index on Wednesday.

>> Read the article online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/283/21342/0/3

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Mortgage Time

20 Oct
Budget Plan Passes
The passage of a budget plan was negative for mortgage rates this week. The economic data had little impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.
Late Thursday, the Senate voted in favor of a 2018 budget plan. This was a key early step along the path to tax reform. Investors viewed the progress on tax reform as negative for mortgage rates for a couple of reasons. First, a new tax plan likely would boost economic growth, which would raise the outlook for future inflation. In addition, it would increase the budget deficit. The added supply of bonds needed to fund the deficit would push yields higher.
The headline figures released on Wednesday for housing starts in September were disappointing. However, digging deeper it was clear that the data was heavily influenced by the impact of the recent hurricanes, and the market reaction was small.

After three months of strong results, single-family housing starts in September fell 5% from August, which was a much larger than expected drop. While starts rose in the Northeast, the West, and the Midwest, they suffered a massive 15% decline in the South, where the bulk of the hurricane damage took place.
Looking ahead, the big event next week likely will be Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). Investors expect that the ECB will announce its future plans for its bond purchase program. In the U.S., Durable Orders and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. Pending Home Sales will come out on Thursday. The first estimate for third quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth, will be released on Friday.

>> View the newsletter online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/282/21342/0/3

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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MORTGAGE TIME

13 Oct
Core Inflation Steady
The two big economic reports this week were released on Friday. Investors placed more weight on tame inflation data than on strong retail sales figures, causing mortgage rates to improve. Wednesday’s minutes from the September 20 Fed meeting contained little new information and the reaction was small. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.
In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator, posted its largest monthly increase since June 2009. This was mostly due to a hurricane-related 13% increase in gas prices during the month.

However, most investors prefer to look at core CPI for a clearer indication of the underlying trend. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose less than expected in September. While several other recent indicators have pointed to rising inflation, core CPI has held steady at an annual rate of 1.7% for five straight months. The tame core inflation data was good for mortgage rates.
Retail sales posted better than expected results in September, rising 1.6% from August. Car sales, in particular, were strong as people replaced vehicles lost in the hurricanes. Overall, though, it was difficult to determine the impact of the hurricanes. According to the Commerce Department, companies reported that "the hurricanes had both positive and negative effects on their sales data." Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator, so this report was good news for the economy.
Looking ahead, it will be a light week for economic data. The housing sector reports will be featured. Housing Starts will be released on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Beyond that, Industrial Production will be released on Tuesday.

>> Read the newsletter online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/281/21342/0/3

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Thank you Sue for the wonderful review!

5 Oct

Nothing makes my day better than receiving another 5-star review from a happy customer!

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Congrats Jordan on your beautiful new condo!

29 Sep

Superb closing with great people! Congrats on your amazing condo Jordan! Great realtor you have there, Christie Deaton.

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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Mortgage Time

29 Sep
Progress on Tax Plan
Additional threats from North Korea were positive for mortgage rates early in the week. However, the announcement of a tax reform plan on Wednesday was negative. The two events were roughly offsetting, and mortgage rates ended the week just slightly higher.
On Monday, North Korean officials said that they interpreted recent comments made by President Trump as a declaration of war. Investors reacted to this by shifting to relatively safer assets, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The increased demand for MBS caused mortgage rates to decline.
The volatility seen this week continued on Wednesday, but the movement was in the opposite direction from Monday. It took place after President Trump released additional details about his proposed tax reform plan. If passed, this plan is expected to boost economic growth and to increase the budget deficit. Faster economic growth raises the outlook for future inflation, which is negative for mortgage rates. A larger deficit increases the supply of bonds, which also is bad for mortgage rates.

In August, core PCE was just 1.3% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of 1.4% in July and from 1.9% in February. This is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. Most Fed officials expect that inflation will gradually rise toward their target level of 2.0% over the medium term, but each additional month of low readings adds doubt that their forecasts are correct.
Looking ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the ISM national manufacturing index will be released on Monday, and the ISM national services index on Wednesday. In addition news about North Korea or tax reform again could influence mortgage rates.

>> View the newsletter online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/279/21342/0/3

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

#MortgageBlog, #BestMortgageLender, #GMFS, #JulieNichols, #NicholsTeam, #ChangingLives

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We love happy customers!

26 Sep

Thank you Satyen for the great Google Review! Customer Service is our focus and we like to hear we were successful!

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Visit my website at: www.juliecnichols.com or contact me with any of your home loan questions.

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